Straver 5.0, Alsasua 4.5, Gafni 4.0, and Fischer 4.0 have mathematically clinched berths.
Pearson 2.0, Bennett 2.0, and Brandt 1.5 have been mathematically eliminated.

Weikel 3.5, Garingo 3.0, and Harrington 3.0 control their own destinies.
Players with 2.5 need help.

I cannot find a single scenario below where Weikel will not advance to the championship, even if he loses.
As long as Garingo and Harrington don't both win, Hong has near-control of his destiny with a win.
If Garingo and Harrington don't both win and Hong fails to win, Sheryka has near-control of his destiny with a win.
Harrington is propelled by a full point bye.  Garingo and Young are handicapped by a zero point bye.

After 6 rounds,
Player	Modified Median/Solkoff Tiebreak Points in the 2.5 point group
Sheryka		15.5	20.5
Hong		14.5	19.5
Simanis		13.5	17.5
Shoemaker	13.0	17.0
Young		 9.5	13.0

TENTATIVE Pairings for Round 7. Secondary Qualifier
1	GARINGO,NATE  (2103 : W  : 3.0)	   	STRAVER, EDWIN  (2120 : b  : 5.0)	
2	HARRINGTON,CHRIS  (1589 : W  : 3.0)	ALSASUA,ELEUTERIO  (2104 : w  : 4.5)	
3	FISCHER,GEORGE E  (1930 : w  : 4.0)	GAFNI,KEVIN  (1972 : b  : 4.0)	
4	HONG,ERNEST C  (2006 : WW : 2.5)	WEIKEL,JEROME V  (1914 : b  : 3.5)	
5	SIMANIS, EDWIN  (1869 : WW : 2.5)	SHERYKA,DAVID  (1900 : BB : 2.5)	
6	PEARSON,ROBERT L  (1667 : W  : 2.0)	SHOEMAKER,ERIC D  (1867 : w  : 2.5)	
7	YOUNG,VERNON R  (1726 : B  : 2.5)	BENNETT,ROBERT J  (1461 : BB : 2.0)	

A. Destiny controllers' scenario:
     Weikel 3.5 needs a draw or a win to clinch.  Garingo 3.0 and Harrington 3.0 need a win to clinch.
     If all three conditions happen, no player currently at 2.5 can advance.

B. Worst case scenario, maximize the 3.5's: Garingo draws, Harrington draws, Hong beats Weikel, Shoemaker and Young win.
  1. If Sheryka beats Simanis: Then Weikel, Hong, Sheryka advance.  Garingo, Shoemaker, Harrington, Young do not.
  2. If Simanis beats Sheryka: Then Weikel, Hong, Garingo advance.  Simanis, Shoemaker, Harrington, Young do not.
  3. If Simanis draws Sheryka: Then Weikel, Hong, Garingo advance.  Shoemaker, Harrington, Young do not.

C. Likely scenario: Garingo draws, Harrington loses, Hong draws Weikel, Shoemaker and Young win.  Weikel advances.
  1. If Sheryka beats Simanis: Then Sheryka, Garingo advance.  Shoemaker, Young do not.
  2. If Simanis beats Sheryka: Then Garingo, Simanis advance.  Shoemaker, Young do not.
  3. If Simanis draws Sheryka: Then Garingo, Shoemaker advance.	Young does not.

D. Best chance for Young and Shoemaker scenario: Garingo loses, Harrington loses, Hong draws or loses, Simanis draws Sheryka.
   Weikel advances.  Shoemaker and Young advance.

E. Best chance for Simanis and Shoemaker scenario: Garingo loses, Harrington loses, Hong draws or loses, Simanis beats Sheryka.
   Weikel advances.  Simanis and Shoemaker advance.


If the players who clinched drop out of the pairings, the pairings would look like:
Bd	White Player Name			Black Player Name	
1	GARINGO,NATE  (2103 : W  : 3.0)	   	WEIKEL,JEROME V  (1914 : b  : 3.5)	
2	HONG,ERNEST C  (2006 : WW : 2.5)	HARRINGTON,CHRIS  (1589 : W  : 3.0)	
3	SIMANIS, EDWIN  (1869 : WW : 2.5)	SHERYKA,DAVID  (1900 : BB : 2.5)	
4	PEARSON,ROBERT L  (1667 : W  : 2.0)	SHOEMAKER,ERIC D  (1867 : w  : 2.5)	
5	YOUNG,VERNON R  (1726 : B  : 2.5)	BENNETT,ROBERT J  (1461 : BB : 2.0)

A. Destiny controllers' scenario:
     Weikel 3.5 needs a draw or a win to clinch.  Garingo 3.0 and Harrington 3.0 need a win to clinch.
     Since Garingo plays Weikel, at least one 2.5 can advance.

B. Likely scenario: Garingo beats Weikel, Hong beats Harrington, Shoemaker and Young win.
  1. If Sheryka beats Simanis: Then Weikel, Sheryka advance.  Hong, Shoemaker, Young do not.
  2. If Simanis beats Sheryka: Then Weikel, Hong advance.  Simanis, Shoemaker, Young do not.
  3. If Simanis draws Sheryka: Then Weikel, Hong advance.  Shoemaker, Young do not.

C. Best chance for Young and Shoemaker scenario: Weikel beats Garingo, Hong draws Harrington, Simanis draws Sheryka.
     Weikel advances.  Shoemaker and Young advance.